The future of European power lies in the modernization of existing power plants and investing in renewable energy. The Joint Research Center of the European Commission has released two reports that tackle the future of power generation in Europe. Both provide guidelines and recommendations for achieving the European Union’s (EU) energy and climate change goals for 2020.

The report “Future fossil fuel electricity generation in Europe” by the JRC Institute for Energy (IE) focuses on the assessment of the role that fossil fuel technology will play in the future EU power system.

According to the report, fossil fuels are likely to remain the backbone of the power system until at least 2030. Given that, power generation will only be compatible with EU policy goals if three factors converge. These would be the commercialization of carbon capture technology; attractive carbon dioxide (CO2) prices; and coal and gas prices being higher than they are today.

As Europe continues to rely on coal and gas, up to 635 gigawatts (GW) of new fossil fuel power plant capacity would be needed to meet the demand. This would require an investment of between EUR250 billion and EUR600 billion.

This, in turn, would require the commercialization of carbon capture technology. The researchers speculate that unless this happens, there will be increased construction of conventional coal power plants if CO2 prices in the European Emissions Trading Scheme are low.

Despite their higher capital costs, carbon capture technologies can help control the cost of electricity as well as the environmental damage of continued fossil fuel use. If carbon dioxide credit prices are high, the researchers see a scenario where natural gas power plants could also begin to rise in popularity.

The widespread use of natural gas would reduce emissions and – as the technology is cheaper than coal-generation technology – maintain low electricity prices. In the long term, however, this could undermine the security of energy supply in the EU and its ability to meet its sustainability targets.

The report concludes that for a sustainable and secure energy system with significantly reduced CO2 emissions to become feasible, there is an urgent need to invest both in increasing non-fossil fuel power generation and in carbon capture technologies to ensure that they are ready for immediate deployment.
In line with this, another report from the JRC’s IE is recommending increased investment and political support for renewable energy generation.

The EU Climate Change Package aims to achieve a 20% improvement in energy efficiency, a 20% contribution from renewable energies in industry and heating, and a 10% share from renewables in transport. On this basis, JRC-IE estimates that Member States will need to generate 35% - 40% of total electricity (3,200 – 3,500 TWh) from renewable energy sources by 2020. This amounts to 1,120 – 1,400 TWh from wind, hydropower, biomass, and solar energy.

“Renewable Energy Snapshots” is based on updated data from the European solar and wind industry. According to the data, the currently-installed capacity of solar PV and wind energy already exceeds the 2010 targets proposed in the EU White Paper on Renewable Sources of Energy (1997).

With more than 65 GW of cumulative installed capacity in 2008, wind energy exceeded its White Paper target of 40 GW by more than 50%. Similarly, by 2008, Solar Photovoltaic electricity generation had almost doubled its cumulative installed capacity in Europe to 9.1 GW - three times the original target for 2010. Drawing on this success, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that 12% of total European electricity demand (380 - 420 Twh) will, given current growth, be supplied by photovoltaic solar energy by 2020 (equivalent to an annual growth rate of 36%).

The JRC Snapshot on Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) indicates that use of the technology is likely to accelerate following the successful development of demonstration plants in Spain.

The study also looked at hydropower, which has a capacity of 310 TWh, according to a 2005 figure. The researchers did not think nor do they recommend that this will be increased since a majority of large hydro resources are already utilized. Also, increasing demand for water, partly due to changing weather, may reduce the amount available for electricity generation in the future.

Similar concerns were expressed for biomass energy. While growth in this sector is expected to continue, potentially to 200 TWh in 2020 from 90 TWh in 2006, the availability of sustainable feedstocks is also in question.

The report also mentioned that bioelectricity generation via biogas or Combined Heat and Power (CHP) could also be an attractive option as the energy is stored in the biomass and can be used on demand, unlike wind or solar energy.

Although the rapid development of solar and wind energy in the last decade has exceeded expectations, increased investment and political support are still vital for renewable electricity generation to meet the 2020 targets.

Fair grid access and new regulatory measures will also need to be established to ensure that the electricity system is capable of absorbing increased amounts of renewable electricity.

Substantial R&D support will also be essential over the next 11 years and beyond to enlarge the markets for electricity generation from wind, solar, biomass, and other renewable sources, leading to the cost reductions that will enable increased production and rapid growth in installed capacity.


- Katrice R. Jalbuena

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Sources:

¹ http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/downloads/jrc_090701_newsrelease_fossil_fuels_en.pdf
² http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/downloads/jrc_090629_newsrelease_renewables.pdf
³ http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/index.cfm?id=10